Context and aims
This project aims at evaluating the challenges posed by high, and rare and extreme (high) electricity demand events associated to winter cold spells in France in the next two decades. More specifically, the modelling chain that encompasses the evaluation of dimensioning or high-risk weather events (winter cold spells in a warming climate) and the translation into its associated (extreme) peak electricity demand (data informed modelling of the demand) will be explored, with the following questions in mind:
- when estimating the probability of (extreme) peak demand in the coming two decades, which blocks along the modelling chain are we most sensitive to ?
- which uncertainties and difficulties contribute most to the uncertainty of this estimation: fundamental difficulties in estimating the frequency of dimensioning or high-risk events in a complex physical system (the climate), or uncertainties in the modelling of the demand (involving socio-economic factors that induce essentially different uncertainties) ?
- how much do these uncertainties matter depending on the purpose of the modelling exercise: power/energy system stress-test, public policy or stakeholder informing, projections and scenarization, etc.
Please see the attached project description for details.
Project topic: Climatology, energy system modeling
Project sponsor: Energy for Climate Center (E4C) of IP Paris